Day Trading Setups

Average Daily Range (ADR) Exhaustion Fade

Every instrument has a real trailing average daily range, and once a session has used up most of that typical move, continuation odds drop and fade odds rise.

Watch today's range climb the thermometer

The tool first computes a real trailing ADR from eight prior generated sessions, then plays today's session bar by bar. The thermometer tracks cumulative range-used-today as a live percentage of that ADR. The first time it crosses 80%, 100%, and 120%, the session pauses and asks you to call Fade or Continue.

80%
100%
120%
Used
0%
of ADR

Computing trailing ADR from 8 prior sessions…

TierCrossingsFadedReal fade rate
80–100% ADR00
100–120% ADR00
120%+ ADR00
Trailing ADR
0
Your calls
Call accuracy

How it works

  1. ADR is a real trailing average, computed fresh. The tool generates eight prior sessions, takes each one's own high-minus-low range, and averages the eight, that average is the ADR used for the rest of the tool.
  2. Range-used-today is a running measurement, not a static number. It is today's highest high so far minus today's lowest low so far, recalculated bar by bar as the session plays.
  3. Three tiers trigger a pause with real thresholds. 80 to 100% of ADR, 100 to 120%, and 120% and above. Each tier only pauses the first time the session crosses into it.
  4. Exhaustion raises fade odds because ADR is a bounded typical move. A session that has already used most of its normal range has statistically less ordinary room left, so mean-reversion probability rises as the tier climbs, and the real fade rate per tier above should trend upward as you play more sessions.

Where this breaks

ADR is an average, not a ceiling

The whole signal rests on today behaving like a typical day, and a real average daily range says nothing about the days that aren't typical. Genuine news events and strong trend days can push actual range to 150% or 200% of ADR without ever fading, and those are exactly the sessions where an "exhaustion" call at 100% is most likely to be wrong, because the size of the move is precisely what makes that day abnormal. The tool includes trend-day sessions in its own data for this reason, and the scoreboard's fade rate at every tier will stay meaningfully below 100%, never a sure thing.

Risk & liability disclaimer: This page is an educational tool only, not financial, investment, or tax advice, and not a recommendation to take any specific trade. The candles and price data shown are randomly generated simulations for illustration, not real market data. Every strategy shown carries a real risk of loss, including loss of principal.