Forex
Carry Trade
Borrow the low-yield currency, hold the high-yield one, and collect the rate differential every day the trade stays open. The income is steady. The currency risk sitting underneath it isn't.
Run a simulated carry position
Set the interest rate differential, the leverage, and the market regime, then run a simulated stretch of trading days. Two things accumulate at the same time: a steady daily carry credit, and a volatile exchange-rate return that can go either way, including the occasional sharp risk-off day working against the position.
No shocks yet this run. Press "Run 130 sessions" to play it forward.
How it works
- The trade is the interest rate differential, not a directional bet on the exchange rate. A trader borrows (goes short) the low-yield currency and holds (goes long) the high-yield one. The broker settles the difference in overnight rates daily, credited or debited to the account as a swap or rollover charge, regardless of which way the price itself moves that day.
- Leverage multiplies the carry and the currency risk together, because they're the same position. Ten times leverage means ten times the daily carry credit, and ten times the size of every exchange-rate move against the account. The slider above scales both at once, the same way a real leveraged position would.
- Left alone, the accrual looks like a slow, dependable staircase. The gold line above only ever moves up, because carry is collected daily no matter what the exchange rate does in between. That predictability is exactly why the trade attracts size.
- Differentials aren't fixed. Central banks move rates. A rate cut on the high-yield side, or a hike on the funding side, narrows the differential and shrinks the daily carry itself, even before the exchange rate reacts to the same news.
Where this breaks
Carry trades unwind all at once, not gradually
Carry trades tend to get crowded, because the appeal (steady income, low day-to-day drama) attracts more size the longer a calm stretch lasts. When global volatility spikes for any reason, funding currencies get bid back hard as leveraged carry positions close simultaneously, and the exchange-rate move against the trade can erase months or years of accumulated carry in a matter of days. The strategy isn't really an income trade wearing a costume, it's a short-volatility trade, and the "Turbulent" regime above is a small taste of what that unwind looks like.