Day Trading Setups
Failed Breakout / Bull Trap
Price closes above resistance, buyers pile in, and a few bars later it's back below the line trapping every one of them. Demanding a longer hold before trusting the break cuts down the traps, at the cost of a worse entry on the ones that were real.
Set the window, log the setup, watch the table move
Choose how many bars a close has to hold above the level before you'd trust it. Click Next Setup to generate a fresh breakout attempt and watch it play out. Every setup gets logged with the real bar its failure happened on, if it ever failed at all, which means the whole trap-rate table below recomputes instantly for every possible window the moment you move the slider, off the exact same history.
Click Next Setup to generate the first breakout attempt.
| K | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trap rate | — | — | — | — | — |
How it works
- The level is real, drawn from actual prior highs. Price approaches it, closes above it once, and that's the breakout bar every setup starts from.
- Every setup either fails on a specific real bar or never fails within the window shown. That failure bar, or its absence, is generated once and logged, it doesn't change when you move the slider afterward.
- A trap is scored relative to K, not as a fixed label. If the logged failure bar is at or before K, that setup counts as a trap for that K. If it's after K, or never happens, it counts as held for that K, even though the same setup might score differently under a different K.
- That's why the whole table updates the instant you move the slider. No new data is generated, the same logged history just gets re-scored against a different confirmation rule in real time.
Where this breaks
A longer window doesn't eliminate the trap, it just moves the entry
Widening K genuinely reduces the trap rate in this simulator, that relationship is real and it's the entire point of demanding confirmation. But it comes at a real cost that a trap-rate number alone doesn't show: every extra bar of waiting is an extra bar of price the clean breakouts get to run before you're allowed to enter, and on the setups that do eventually fail after holding past K, a five-bar confirmation buys nothing at all, since the rule only ever promised to filter failures inside the window, not after it.