Day Trading Setups
The 10 O'Clock Reversal Rule
If a stock hasn't broken its own opening-range high or low by a set morning checkpoint, the odds shift toward a reversal back through the open instead of a continuation of the first move. Move the checkpoint and watch the odds change live.
Set the checkpoint, check containment, call it
Every trial opens a real session at 9:30 and builds a real opening range from the first few bars. Drag the checkpoint slider toward your own "10 o'clock." At that bar, the tool checks live whether price has stayed inside the opening range since the open. If it has, a rule signal fires. Bet reversal or range-bound, then watch the real rest of the session play out.
Building the session from the open…
| Group | Trials | Reversals | Reversal rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rule fired, held early | 0 | 0 | — |
| Rule fired, held late | 0 | 0 | — |
| Rule did not fire (broke out early) | 0 | 0 | — |
How it works
- The opening range comes from the first 6 real bars after 9:30. Its high and low are computed directly off those bars, nothing is assumed.
- The checkpoint is a real bar-count slider. Moving it from 6 bars to 24 bars after the open reclassifies which bar the containment check runs against, roughly 9:36am at the low end to past 10:15am at the high end.
- Containment is checked live against every bar between the open and the checkpoint. If none of those real bars has traded beyond the opening range high or low, the rule signal fires as still contained.
- The scoreboard separates fired signals from non-signals. Sessions where price already broke out before the checkpoint go in a separate row, so the reversal rate for an actual signal is never mixed in with sessions where there was no signal to begin with.
Where this breaks
Containment is a description of the last hour, not a forecast of the next one
A session can stay perfectly contained inside its opening range right up to the checkpoint and then break out cleanly ten minutes later, no reversal at all. The rule only measures how quiet the first stretch of the session has been. Quiet mornings do turn into afternoon reversals through the open more often than mornings that already broke out, in the numbers this tool tallies, but "more often" is not "always," and a checkpoint set too late will catch sessions that were already resolving themselves before the clock got there.