Trading Tools Comparison

Should I use an instant risk-of-ruin formula, or a Monte Carlo simulation?

Both TradingHabits and ChartWiseHub offer a free risk of ruin calculator. The real difference is whether you want one number back immediately from two inputs, or a simulated range of outcomes built from a fuller strategy profile.

TradingHabits and ChartWiseHub both publish a free risk of ruin calculator, and both point traders toward the same cluster of follow-up tools: an expectancy calculator, a drawdown recovery calculator, and a position size calculator. But the two risk-of-ruin calculators themselves work differently. TradingHabits' version uses the classic closed-form "gambler's ruin" formula: enter your win rate and your risk per trade, and it returns a single risk-of-ruin percentage instantly, assuming a 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio and a fixed size every trade. ChartWiseHub's version runs a Monte Carlo simulation, generating many randomized sequences of wins and losses from a fuller strategy profile (starting balance, win rate, average win and loss in R, an optional fee drag, risk per trade, trade count, and your own ruin threshold), then reports the percentage of simulated paths that crossed that threshold, alongside a spread of other outcomes like median ending balance and percentile results.

The comparison below is based on ChartWiseHub's own published risk of ruin calculator page as of mid-2026.

The Basics, Side by Side

  TradingHabits ChartWiseHub
Price Free, all calculators Free, no signup found on the calculator page
Signup required No account, no email, no login No account required to use the calculator itself
Methodology Closed-form "gambler's ruin" formula, one deterministic calculation Monte Carlo simulation across many randomized trade sequences
Inputs Win rate and risk per trade only, assumes a 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio and fixed position size Starting balance, win rate, average win and loss in R, optional fee drag, risk per trade, number of trades, ruin threshold, simulation count
Output format A single risk-of-ruin percentage Estimated risk of ruin, probability of profit, median and average ending balance, median max drawdown, 10th-percentile outcome, expectancy per trade, break-even win rate
Best for A fast, directional read on how win rate and risk per trade interact, without entering a full strategy profile A fuller stress test that accounts for uneven win/loss size, trade-sequence risk, and a range of possible outcomes rather than one number

What Each One Actually Does Well

Where TradingHabits fits

  • You want an instant answer from just two numbers, without filling in average win size, average loss size, or a simulation count first.
  • You're comparing how risk of ruin shifts as you change win rate or risk per trade in isolation, using the same simple formula every time.
  • You want this calculator as one step in a linked five-tool sequence, alongside expectancy, losing-streak probability, streak sizing, and drawdown recovery.
  • Your strategy's average winner and average loser are roughly similar in size, where the 1:1 assumption doesn't distort the estimate much.

Where ChartWiseHub fits

  • Your average winner and average loser are meaningfully different sizes, which the simulation accounts for directly instead of assuming they're equal.
  • You want to see a distribution of outcomes, like a median and a 10th-percentile ending balance, rather than one single percentage.
  • You want fees or cost drag factored into the simulation instead of estimated separately.
  • You're already using TradingView and want a tool that lives alongside its other TradingView-focused tutorials and guides.

Using Both

Both sites point to nearly the same follow-up cluster for a reason: risk of ruin means more once it's tied to expectancy, losing-streak odds, and drawdown recovery math. A trader could get a fast directional read from TradingHabits' instant formula, then run the same strategy's fuller profile, uneven win/loss sizes and all, through ChartWiseHub's Monte Carlo simulation to see the range of outcomes behind that single number.

A note on this comparison: ChartWiseHub's features and pricing are based on its own public risk of ruin calculator page as of mid-2026 and are subject to change without notice; confirm current details directly on ChartWiseHub before making a decision. Trading Habits is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by ChartWiseHub. This page is provided for informational comparison only and is not an endorsement or criticism of either product.

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