What is my trade expectancy per trade if I know my win rate, average winner, and average loser?
Enter Your Trade Stats
Your Result
Fill in the fields on the left and click Calculate to see your expected dollar result per trade, your implied profit factor, and the win rate you'd need just to break even at these average win/loss sizes.
Visualizing It
How this is calculated
Expectancy per trade equals (win rate × average winner) minus (loss rate × average loser). Loss rate is assumed to be 100% minus your win rate.
This is the average dollar result you'd expect on a single trade, over a large enough sample, if your actual future win rate and average win/loss sizes end up matching the ones you entered.
Profit factor is the ratio of total expected winning dollars to total expected losing dollars implied by these stats. A profit factor above 1 means the numbers you entered describe a strategy that makes money over time. Below 1 means it loses money over time.
Break-even win rate needed is the minimum win rate that would make expectancy exactly zero, given your entered average winner and average loser. It equals average loser divided by the sum of average winner and average loser.
If you enter a number of trades, the projected total simply multiplies expectancy per trade by that count. It assumes your win rate and average win/loss sizes stay constant, which rarely holds true over an actual trading history.
This does not include commissions, fees, taxes, or slippage, all of which lower your actual expectancy below this estimate.
This calculator uses the numbers you enter. It does not pull your actual trade history and does not verify that your past win rate or average win/loss sizes will continue into the future.
Risk & liability disclaimer: This calculator produces a mathematical estimate based on the numbers you enter. It is not financial advice and does not guarantee any trading outcome. Trading involves risk of loss, and a positive expectancy calculated from past or assumed statistics does not guarantee future profitability. Trading Habits is not a broker-dealer, registered investment adviser, or tax professional, and is not affiliated with any broker, exchange, or data provider. We do not guarantee this tool is error-free or suitable for your situation. Always verify results independently and consult a licensed professional before making any trading or financial decision. You could lose some or all of the capital you trade with.
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