What could my account look like after a set number of trades at my win rate and risk/reward ratio?

How this is calculated

• Each trade risks a set percentage of your current account balance, so gains and losses compound. This is called fixed-fractional position sizing.
• Because compounding is multiplicative, the final balance after a set number of trades depends only on how many of those trades were wins, not the order they happened in. This tool uses that fact to compute exact probabilities across every possible win count with the binomial distribution, instead of running random trials.
• The median (50th percentile) is the outcome your typical run lands closest to. The average (mean) can be pulled higher than the median because a small share of very strong runs pull the average up. Rely on the median and the 10th to 90th percentile range to judge a likely outcome, not the average alone.
• The 10th and 90th percentile values mark a rough likely range. Roughly 8 out of 10 modeled outcomes fall between them, using the win rate and risk/reward you entered, held constant every trade.
• This assumes the same win rate, the same risk/reward ratio, and the same percentage risk on every trade, with no strategy changes, no fixed dollar withdrawals, and no fees. Actual trading results will vary from this model for all of those reasons.